Análisis económico de algunas estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático en drenaje urbano

Abstract

Water resources management must work on the problems for the current situation and develop planning tools for scenarios of climate change, incorporating the increase of uncertainty that it generates. Possible ways to deal with the potential impacts of climate change are four strategies for planning urban drainage systems: ignoring the future impact, project based on the maximum expected increases, project adaptation by stages, and incorporation of source control measures. The operation of an urban system was simulated for three hypothetical climate change impact scenarios. The costs of implementing each strategy and the direct damages due to flood losses were quantified. From that, the economic results of each strategy were estimated and a comparative analysis was made of the advantages and disadvantages of adopting each one. An interesting aspect of this work is that the results are also at least partially applicable to general uncertainties related to rainfall, which go beyond those caused by climate change, and are already in a position to affect projects; for example, the use of very short and unrepresentative rainfall series or climatic variability