Análisis de caudales del Río Paraná y contextualización de las bajantes en los años hidrológicos 2019/20, 2020/21 Y 2021/22

Pedro Basile; Gerardo Riccardi

doi:10.35305/curiham.ed23.e01

Authors

Pedro Basile Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura. Departamento de Hidráulica y Centro Universitario Rosario de Investigaciones Hidroambientales. Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8826-0621
Gerardo Riccardi Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura. Departamento de Hidráulica y Centro Universitario Rosario de Investigaciones Hidroambientales. Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9294-3166

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35305/curiham.ed23.e01

Keywords:

Flow analysis, Paraná River, Timbúes gauging section

Abstract

This paper presents the flow analysis of the Paraná River, on a daily, monthly, annual and multi-annual time scale; considering the average daily flows corresponding to the series of hydrological years 1904/05-2021/22, observed in the main channel at Timbúes gauging section. In said framework, the low flows registered in the hydrological years 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 are characterized. An increase in flows is observed from the beginning of the 1970s. Annual minimum daily mean flows were much more frequent before the hydrological year 1971/72; the opposite occurs with the corresponding maximum flows. The mean annual hydrograph of the 1971/72-2021/22 sub-series is higher and shows less difference between the maximum and minimum flow than that of 1904/05-1970/71. The annual module flow in the sub-series 1904/05-1970/71 is 14168 m³/s and in the sub-series 1971/72-2021/22 it is 17493 m³/s, that is, an increase of 3325 m³/s is observed from the year 1971/72. In this context, the low flows of the hydrological years 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 are verified, which present negative anomalies of annual average flows equal to -5253 m³/s (2019/20), -7034 m³/s (2020/21) and -7521 m³/s (2021/22), that is, the largest negative anomalies of the Paraná River in the 118 years with records considered here.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

References

Becker, E. (14 de julio de 2022). July 2022 La Niña update: comic timing. ENSO Blog en NOAA Climate.gov. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/july-2022-la-niña-update-comic-timing)

Berbery, E. H. y Barros, V. R. (2002). The hydrological cycle of the La Plata Basin in South America. Journal of Hydrometrology 3, 630–645. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2002)003<0630:THCOTL>2.0.CO;2

Berbery, E. H., Doyle, M. y Barros, V. R. (2006). Tendencias regionales en la precipitación. En: Barros, V., Clarke, R. y Silva Dias, P. (Eds.), El Cambio climático en la cuenca del Plata. Buenos Aires, CIMA/CONICET, pp. 67–79.

Betts, R., Cox, P. M., Collins, M., Arris, P. P., Huntingford, C. y Jones, C. D. (2004). The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest die back under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78, 157–166. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y

Boulanger, J. P., Leloup, J., Penalba, O. C., Rusticucci, M. M., Lafon, F. y Vargas, W. M. (2005). Observed precipitation in the Paraná-Plata hydrological basin: long-term trends, extreme conditions and ENSO teleconnections. Climate Dynamics 24, 393–413. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0514-x

Carvalho, L. M. V., Jones, C., Silva, A. E., Liebmann, B. y Silva Dias, P. L. (2011). The South American Monsoon System and the 1970s climate transition. Int. J. Climatol. 31, 1248–1256. DOI:10.1002/joc.2147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2147

Cavalcanti, I. F. A., Carril, A. F., Penalba, O. C., Grimm, A. M., Menéndez, C. G., Sanchez, E., Cherchi, A., Sörensson, A., Robledo, F., Rivera, J., Pántano, V., Bettolli, L. M., Zaninelli, P., Zamboni, L., Tedeschi, R. G., Dominguez, M., Ruscica, R. y Flach, R.(2015). Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin–Review and new results from observations and climate simulations. Journal of Hydrology 523, 211–230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.028

Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R. y Mays, L. W. (1994). Hidrología Aplicada. McGraw-Hill Interamericana S.A., Bogotá, Colombia. ISBN 958-600-171-7.

Collischonn, W., Tucci, C. E. M. y Clarke, R. T. (2001). Further evidence of changes in the hydrological regime of the River Paraguay: part of a wider phenomenon of climate change? Journal of Hydrology 245, 218–238. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00348-1

Comité Intergubernamental Coordinador de los Países de la Cuenca del Plata. (2017). Ecosistemas acuáticos en la Cuenca del Plata. Comité Intergubernamental Coordinador de los Países de la Cuenca del Plata – 1ra Ed. Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Libro digital, PDF. https://cicplata.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ecosistemas_acuaticos_en_la_cuenca_del_plata_20170424.pdf

Cox, P., Betts, R., Collins, M., Harris, P., Huntingford, C. y Jones, C. (2004). Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21th century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78, 137–156. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0049-4

Centro Regional del Clima para el Sur de América del Sur. (s.f.). Sistemas de Información sobre Sequías para el Sur de Sudamérica. Organización Meteorológica Mundial. https://www.crc-sas.org/es/

Di Bitetti, M. S., Placci, G. y Dietz, L. A. (2003). Una Visión de Biodiversidad para la Ecorregión del Bosque Atlántico del Alto Paraná: Diseño de un Paisaje para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad y Prioridades para las Acciones de Conservación. Washington, D.C., World Wildlife Fund.

Dirección Nacional de Vías Navegables-Distrito Paraná Inferior.(2022). Datos de niveles hidrométricos diarios del río Paraná en Puerto San Martín (km 448). Dirección Nacional de Vías Navegables-Distrito Paraná Inferior, Argentina.

Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura. (1989). Estudio hidráulico y morfológico del tramo km 410-440 del Río Paraná. Departamento de Hidráulica e Ing. Sanitaria. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Ingeniería y Agrimensura (FCEIA) – Universidad Nacional de Rosario.

Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas. (2004). Estudios Hidráulicos y Morfológicos Zona Isla de La Invernada, Río Paraná. Informe final. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas (FICH) – Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Diciembre 2004.

Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas. (2006). Estudios Complementarios Hidráulicos y Morfológicos de la Zona de la Isla de La Invernada. Informe final. Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias Hídricas (FICH) – Universidad Nacional del Litoral, Julio 2006.

Global Drought Observatory. (2021). GDO Analytical report. Drought in centre-south Brazil – June 2021. JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo/php/index.php?id=2050

González, M. P. (2023). Sequía en Brasil. CRC-SAS. Centro regional del Clima para el Sur de América del Sur. SISSA-Sistema de Información de Sequías para el Sur de Sudamérica. https://sissa.crc-sas.org.

Grimm, A. M., Vera, C. y Mechoso, R. (2005). The South American Monsoon System. En: The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, Chang, C. P., Wang, B. y Lau, N. C. G. (eds), WMO/TD 1266 – TMRP: pp. 542.

Haylock, M. R., Peterson, T. C., Alves, L. M., Ambrizzi, T., Anunciação, Y. M.,T., Baez, J., Barros, V. R., Berlato, M. A., Bidegain, M., Coronel, G., Corradi, V., Garcia, V. J., Grimm, A. M., Karoly, D., Marengo, J. A., Marino, M. B., Moncunill, D. F., Nechet, D., Quintana, J., Rebello, E., Rusticucci, M., Santos, J. L., Trebejo, I. y Vincent, L. A. (2006). Trends in Total and Extreme South American Rainfall in 1960–2000 and Links with Sea Surface Temperature. Journal of Climate 19, 1490–1512. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3695.1

Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia de Brasil (2021). Prognóstico climático 2021. Anexo I. Variação climática da chuva na bacia do Rio Paraná – Crise Hídrica. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) de Brasil.

Jacques-Coper, M. y Garreaud, R. D. (2015). Characterization of the 1970s climate shift in South America. International Journal of Climatology 35, 2164–2179. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4120

Liebmann, B., Vera, C. S., Carvalho, L. M. V., Camilloni, I., Hoerling, M. P., Barros, V. R., Baez, J. y Bidegain, M. (2004). An observed trend in central South American precipitation. Journal of Climate 17, 4357-4367. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/3205.1

Machado Rocha, V., Teixeira da Silva, P. R., Brito Gomes, W., Alves Vergasta, L. y Jardine, A. (2018). Precipitation Recycling in the Amazon Basin: A Study Using the ECMWF Era-Interim Reanalysis Dataset. Revista do Departamento de Geografia 35, 71-82. Universidade de São Paulo. Brasil. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11606/rdg.v35i0.139494

Malhi, Y., Aragäo, L., Galbraith, D., Huntingford, C., Fisher, R., Zelazowski, P., Sitch, S., McSweeney, C. y Meir, P. (2009). Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. PNAS 106(49): pp. 20610–20615, DOI:10.1073/pnas.0804619106 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0804619106

Malhi, Y., Roberts, J. T. R., Betts, R. A., Killeen, T. J., Li, W. y Nobre, C. A. (2008). Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science, 319, 169–172, DOI:10.1126/science.1146961. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1146961

Marengo, J. A., Ambrizzi, T. y Soares, W. R. (2009). Jato de BaixosNíveisao longo dos Andes. En: Cavalcanti, I. F. A.; Ferreira, N. J.; Silva, M. G. A. J. da; Dias, M. A. F. da Silva (Orgs) Tempo e Clima no Brasil. São Paulo: Oficina de Textos, pp. 169-180.

Marengo, J. A., Liebmann, B., Grimm, A. M., Misra, V., Silva Dias, P. L., Cavalcanti I. F. A., Carvalho, L. M. V., Berbery, E. H., Ambrizzi T., Vera, C. S., Saulo, A. C., Nogues-Paegle, J., Zipser, E., Seth A. y Alves, L. M. (2010). Review recent developments on the South American monsoon system. International Journal of Climatology 32; 1-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2254

Marengo, J. A. (2006). On the Hydrological Cycle of the Amazon Basin: A historical review and current State-of-the-art. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 21, 3a, 1-19.

Marengo, J. A., Cunha, A. P., Cuartas, L. A., Deusdará Leal, K. R., Broedel, E., Seluchi, M. E., Michelin, C. M., De Praga Baião, C. F., Chuchón Ângulo, E. y Almeida, E. K. (2021a). Extreme Drought in the Brazilian Pantanal in 2019–2020: Characterization, Causes, and Impacts. Frontiers in Water 3, 13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.639204

Marengo, J. A., Ambrizzi, T., Barreto, N., Cunha, A. P., Ramos, A. M., Skansi, M., Carpio, J. M. y Salinas, R. (2021b). The Heat Wave of October 2020 in Central South America. International Journal of Climatology 42, 2281–2298 (2022). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7365

Mechoso, C. R., Robertson, A. W., Ropelewsky, C. F. y Grimm, A. M. (2005). The American monsoon systems: An introduction. En: Chang, C. P.; Wang, B.; Lau, N. C. G. (Eds.). The global monsoon system: research and forecast. Genebra: World Meteorological Organization, WMO/TD, n. 1266 (TMRP Rep. n. 70), pp. 197-206.

Misra, V. (2008). Coupled air, sea, and land interactions of the South American Monsoon. Journal of Climate 21: 6389–6403. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2497.1

Misra, V., Dirmeyer, P. A., Kirtman, B. P., Juang, H. M. y Kanamitsu, M. (2002). Regional simulation of inter-annual variability over South America. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8036, DOI:10.1029/2001JD900216. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD900216

Naumann, G., Podesta, G., Marengo, J., Luterbacher, J., Bavera, D., Arias Muñoz, C., Barbosa, P., Cammalleri, C., Chamorro, L., Cuartas, A., de Jager, A., Escobar, C., Hidalgo, C., Leal de Moraes, O., McCormick, N., Maetens, W., Magni, D., Masante, D., Mazzeschi, M., Seluchi, M., Skansi, M. M., Spinoni, J. y Toreti, A. (2021). The 2019-2021 extreme drought episode in La Plata Basin. EUR 30833 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-41898-6 (online), DOI:10.2760/773 (online), JRC126508.

Naumann, G., Podesta, G., Marengo, J., Luterbacher, J., Bavera, D., Acosta Navarro, J., Arias Muñoz, C., Barbosa, P., Cammalleri, C., Cuartas, A., de Estrada, M., de Felice, M., de Jager, A., Escobar, C., Fioravanti, G., Giordano Harst Essenfelder, A. L., Hidalgo, C., Leal de Moraes, O., Maetens, W., Magni, D., Masante, D., Mazzeschi, M., Osman, M., Rossi, L., Seluchi, M., de los Milagros Skansi, M., Spennemann, P., Spinoni, J., Toreti, A y Vera, C. (2022). Extreme and long-term drought in the La Plata Basin: event evolution and impact assessment until September 2022, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2022, DOI:10.2760/62557, JRC132245.

Nobre, C. A. y Borma, L. S. (2009). Tipping points for the Amazon forest. Current Opinion in Environment Sustainability 1, 28–36. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.003

Nobre, P., Malagutti, M., Urbano, D. F., de Almeida, R. A. F. y Giarolla, E. (2009). Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation. Journal of Climate 22, 5686–5697. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2757.1

Oliveira, V. A., de Mello, C. R., de Viola, M. R. y Srinivasan, R. (2018). Land-use change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Grande river basin, Brazil. Cerne 24, 334–343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/01047760201824042573

Salazar, L. F., Nobre, C. A. y Oyama, M. D. (2007). Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L09708. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029695

Sampaio, G., Nobre, C. A., Costa, M. H., Satyamurty, P., Soares-Filho, B. S. y Cardoso, M. (2007). Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17709. DOI:10.1029/2007GL030612. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030612

Santos, D. F. y dos Reboita, M. S. (2018). Jatos de baixos níveis a leste dos Andes: Comparação entre duas reanálises. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, 22, 423-445. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0.47595

Saurral, R. I., Barros V. R. y Lettenmaier, D. P. (2008). Land use impact on the Uruguay River discharge. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L12401. DOI:10.1029/2008GL033707 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033707

Seager, R., Naik, N., Baethgen, W., Robertson, A., Kushnir, Y., Nakamura, J. y Jurburg, S. (2010). Tropical Oceanic Causes of Interannual to Multidecadal Precipitation Variability in Southeast South America over the Past Century. Journal of Climate 23, 5517–5539. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3578.1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3578.1

Silva, G. A. M., Ambrizzi, T. y Marengo, J. A. (2009). Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability. Annales Geophysicae, 27, 645–657, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-645-2009

Sistema Nacional de Información Hídrica. (s.f.). Base de Datos del Sistema Nacional de Información Hídrica, Secretaría de Infraestructura y Política Hídrica, Ministerio de Obras Públicas. https://snih.hidricosargentina.gob.ar

Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M., Piao, S. L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. D., Prentice, I. C. y Woodward, F. I. (2008). Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14, 2015–2039. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x

Stevaux, J. C., Martins, D. P. y Meurer, M. (2007). Changes in the Paraná River Channel introduced by the Porto Primavera Dam, Brazil. Workshop on Morphodynamic Processes in Large Lowland Rivers. 12-16 Nov. 2007, Santa Fe, Argentina.

Tucci, C. E. (2003). Flood flow forecasting. Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization 52, 46–52.

World Meteorological Organization. (2021). State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2020. World Meteorological Organization WMO-No. 1272.