Estimación probabilística del riesgo sanitario con MS Excel:

ejemplo de aplicación a un escenario recreativo

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to present, through an example, the potential use of MS Excel for carrying out
probabilistic water-related health risk analyses. It is applied to a case of accidental intake of sub-chronic or
chronic pf water, due to recreational use of natural waters, using the nitrate content as the species dangerous for health. The paper describes complex nested functions in Excel, used to apply Monte Carlo in order to obtain the frequency distributions of the parameters related to the exposition as well as the risk. Results show that those complex functions are a good substitute of numerical operations done with commercial software explicitly designed for risk analyses. Without resignation of calculation precision, the lack of options and the graphical/analytical abilities of Excel are compensated by its ubiquity and low cost. That makes it a feasible option to decision makers at the municipal water resources management level for carrying out probabilistic health risk analyses, given the fact that the limited amount of funds does not allow
purchasing high-price software.